Trump Faces Uphill Battle in Pennsylvania as Biden Holds Lead, New Poll Shows

A recent poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research reveals that former President Donald Trump faces a steep challenge in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. The survey, conducted in mid-February, shows President Joe Biden leading Trump by a substantial 8-point margin, 47% to 39%, in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. As Jim Lee, president and CEO of Susquehanna Polling, explained on the “Still Poddable” podcast, this lead is largely driven by Trump’s underperformance among Republicans and his inability to appeal to swing voters.

“I believe this poll,” Lee stated firmly. “He was underperforming with Republicans in such a way that it was really dragging down his support statewide.” Trump’s support among GOP voters has dropped to 77%, a significant decline from the mid-80s in September 2022. Meanwhile, Biden is capturing 11% of the Republican vote, a concerning trend for the former president. Lee attributed this shift to the ongoing competition for the 2024 Republican nomination, particularly the challenge posed by former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

Swing voters, who constitute about a third of Pennsylvania’s electorate, pose another major hurdle for Trump. According to Lee, Trump is losing independents by a staggering 20 percentage points, a margin that mirrors his performance in the 2020 election. “I’m not suggesting Trump’s gonna lose by seven points,” Lee cautioned, “but I really believe the pathway to admit to 46% or 48, if it’s a three person race, is very difficult.” To win Pennsylvania, Trump must not only match his 2016 numbers in conservative areas but also make inroads with moderate suburbanites and culturally conservative Democrats in the southwest part of the state.

The poll also highlights the competitive nature of Pennsylvania’s upcoming Senate race. Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick, a disparity that Lee attributes to President Biden’s sagging approval ratings. “I think Senator Casey is weak, and I think this poll exposed his weakness,” Lee asserted, citing Casey’s thin legislative record and the perception that he has been a “rubber stamp” for Biden’s policies.

Despite these challenges, Lee does not believe Trump will be a drag on down-ticket Republicans like McCormick. “Trump will probably help with turnout because a Trump voter is a McCormick voter,” he explained, “but not every McCormick voter is a Trump voter.” This dynamic suggests that McCormick could outperform the former president on Election Day, making the Senate race one to watch closely.

As the 2024 election cycle kicks into gear, Pennsylvania is once again poised to play a pivotal role in determining the nation’s political future. While the Susquehanna poll paints a daunting picture for Donald Trump, the former president has defied expectations before. However, to replicate his 2016 success, he will need to broaden his appeal beyond his base and convince swing voters that he is the right choice to lead the country forward.